I haven't blogged for a wee while. In the immediate aftermath of the election I've been focusing on my university dissertation, editing down the first draft and beginning the process of turning it into the final product.
But now, with the electoral dust settling, I want to reflect on what I think will be a fast emerging reality over these next five years - the development of very different political and social models north and south of the border.
In his speech to SNP conference last autumn, Alex Salmond said: "Much has been said about the Big Society. I am more concerned with the Fair Society." These two sentences tell us a great deal about the approach that will be adopted by the SNP government. The SNP way stands in contrast to the ambition of the UK government, evidenced by their actions and articulated once again in the speech David Cameron delivered earlier this week.
In his address to the Scottish Parliament tomorrow, I believe our very different destination will become clear, and I don't mean that in a constitutional sense. As is often the case during an election campaign, some of the bigger picture themes are obscured by the day to day detail. But tomorrow's Taking Scotland Forward speech presents the opportunity to capture the various elements and present them as a whole. It will give the First Minister the chance to set out in clear terms the sort of country he believes Scotland can become. Effectively, the shape and tenor of the society we can create, together, over these next few years.
And what are some of those elements? On the economy it is a desire to continue pump-priming jobs and growth through ongoing investment in national infrastructure. The SNP, in the last session, delayed the onset of the London government's cuts and the result is a much stronger employment performance compared with the rest of the UK. This is most apparent in the construction sector which saw 14% growth over the last year. Stronger and more flexible borrowing powers in the future will be a key element, enabling us to maintain this focus on job creation.
In the health service, we are determined to ensure the preservation of a truly national service while in England, government plans will lead to the effective dismemberment of their NHS. Our model of a mutual NHS, with patients as partners rather than customers, is based on a belief in the value of a public sector ethos. We know that it is a commitment to something greater than profit that delivers exceptional performance in our public services. Contributing to a wider public good - to have meaning in what we do - is, quite literally, priceless.
In our universities, the Scottish Government's commitment to maintain free higher education stands in contrast to a Westminster approach that will see university education based on ability to pay and not the ability to learn. I have heard the First Minister, on numerous occasions, speak with pride of Scotland's early commitment to free education: free, compulsory education which produced the fertile ground for a proliferation of inventors and thinkers, gave birth to the Enlightenment and created a golden thread of learning that today is reflected in the internationally recognised excellence of our research. And that, we know, is something worth protecting.
And, if we could, we would not be spending billions on new nuclear weapons as the London government plans. Instead, as a nation, we would choose to invest, I believe, in gold-standard childcare and decent pensions. These speak more to who we are, who we want to be, than weapons of mass-destruction.
There is a harshness to the UK government's approach that goes against the grain of Scottish society. In the 1980's Scotland reacted against the then Tory government because we sensed so many of the things we held dear were under threat. And that wasn't simply a threat to any one service or any one industry - the threat was to the very fabric of our society, to the things that defined us as a nation and as a community. The Thatcher way was alien.
Then, we lacked the ability to choose our own path. Today, with a Scottish Parliament and Government, that opportunity exists. And it is an opportunity we will take. Step by step, with hard work and determination, we can build, and will build, a new and fairer Scotland. Not yet in every way, but in many ways. And, the country we create will be a very different one from the nation that is emerging down south.
This is a tale of two countries, of two very different visions of society and of the future. It reflects contrasting priorities. And that, ultimately, is what Home Rule - devolution and independence - is all about.
Wednesday, 25 May 2011
Tuesday, 17 May 2011
A government of all our ambitions
There is a line in the speech Alex Salmond delivered at Prestonfield House, in the immediate aftermath of the SNP's victory in the Scottish election, that sums up perfectly what I hope and believe the SNP government, over these next five years, will be all about.
Towards the end of his comments, Alex said: "I'll govern for all of the ambitions for Scotland and all the people who imagine that we can live in a better land."
Attention is now moving away from the historic nature of the result itself, to the real issues of policy and delivery. So I want to reflect on what I think some of those ambitions are, based on the many conversations we had as part of the manifesto development process.
The list could, in many ways, be endless. For each of our 5 million fellow citizens there are ambitions that are personal and unique and indeed ambitions that are developing and changing. But from this list of infinite potential, I am going to choose just two. Regular readers of this blog won't be surprised by my choice given the powerful impact and contribution of two particular groups in our manifesto preparation.
First, Scotland's unpaid carers. The message that came from them was a very simple one. It is an aspiration, and indeed expectation, that I hope ministers do all they can to meet. Scotland's unpaid carers want to be true partners in the care of their loved ones and to be seen as partners and treated as partners. At its simplest this means turning the good words and good ideas in all the parties' manifestos into action on the ground. It means recognising the invaluable role unpaid carers play and their unique knowledge. The responsibility politicians now have - and that means politicians in all parties in parliament and indeed in council chambers - is to iron out the bureaucratic complexities that can too often get in the way.
There are three steps in particular I want to highlight. First is the early activation of the SNP's proposed Carers' Parliament so that the politicians and civil servants can hear first hand the experiences of carers. That will give them the essential knowledge they need to begin a process of reform and improvement.
Second, is a new approach in the NHS that turns the good guidance that undoubtedly exists into positive experience for carers, so that they are brought more closely into the conversations and planning of the professional care offered by the health service. I remember hearing story after story from carers who felt excluded when the information they could provide would improve the care for their loved ones and also make life easier for the doctors and nurses themselves.
And finally, we have to respond adequately to the particular needs of young carers, especially in a school setting. I can only imagine the pressure on young carers who have to juggle their caring responsibilities and their school work and the system must respond more sympathetically and effectively to their uniquely difficult circumstances. Our proposal to make the Education Maintenance Allowance more flexible is an important starting point.
The second group to deliver a powerful message of change was the Poverty Truth Commission. As the Commission itself says, for Scotland's most disadvantaged communities "nothing about us, without us, is for us". I hope these words are emblazoned in the minds of the new SNP ministerial team. Community empowerment was an important theme in the SNP manifesto and at its core this means that communities themselves must, as much as possible, have the opportunity to determine the right approach for their own circumstances. It has to mean a move away from the worst top-down policy making and decision making of the past.
I'll highlight two initiatives that I believe can make a difference. First is our proposed Warm Homes Fund which has at its heart the determination not only to insulate homes and provide sources of renewable energy for fuel poor communities, but more than this, it has the clear purpose of ensuring those renewable energy sources are community-owned and deliver a long-term financial return - an income stream which the communities themselves control and can use to improve their local area. And in my view, that source of renewable energy need not be in the community itself. I see no good reason why the fund shouldn't be used to allow the most fuel-poor communities to own a wind turbine or a share of a turbine in one of the wind-farms being constructed elsewhere. It would be good to see our energy companies as willing partners in this sort of meaningful corporate social responsibility.
Second is our Community Empowerment Bill which will make it easier for local organisations to take over unused and underused public sector assets and put them to good use. The Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO) made very clear in the run up to the campaign just how important this step could be. If we can create or reclaim spaces for vibrant, locally-led organisations then I have no doubt that we will create stronger and more successful communities and as importantly a range of initiatives that respond more effectively to local needs. Scotland has a complex mosaic of need and that requires an equally intricate mosaic of response. To borrow another phrase from the First Minister, Holyrood does not have a monopoly of wisdom and I hope that Scotland's politicians can find ways of releasing local potential and supporting the flowering of community activity in its many forms.
In the days since the SNP election victory some commentators have asked what Scotland voted for. I think the answer is simple - for a government of all our ambitions. A Scottish Government not only working hard for the people of our nation today, but as importantly with an eye to the better land we need to create and can create.
What does that mean? Hopefully the elements I've outlined above give some illustration. Ministers, building on a clear direction of travel over these past four years to deliver an approach that is about transforming, in simple but important ways, the day to day life experience of people in all parts of our nation.
What else? How about real action on anti-social behaviour, with a clamp down on pocket-money priced alcohol to make communities safer. Incomes protected with water bills and Council tax frozen. Job creation prioritised so we can keep people in work and create new opportunities for employment. These things, and more, designed to answer basics hopes, delivering ambition that is also grounded in our day to day reality: security and peace of mind whether you are walking down your street or balancing your family budget.
As a final thought, one last campaign image, courtesy of Ewan McIntosh. This is a 'wordle' of our manifesto and it paints, in the most vivid way, what I believe is a true picture of the SNP election campaign. A campaign that, at its most basic, did have Scotland, and our many ambitions, at its heart:
Towards the end of his comments, Alex said: "I'll govern for all of the ambitions for Scotland and all the people who imagine that we can live in a better land."
Attention is now moving away from the historic nature of the result itself, to the real issues of policy and delivery. So I want to reflect on what I think some of those ambitions are, based on the many conversations we had as part of the manifesto development process.
The list could, in many ways, be endless. For each of our 5 million fellow citizens there are ambitions that are personal and unique and indeed ambitions that are developing and changing. But from this list of infinite potential, I am going to choose just two. Regular readers of this blog won't be surprised by my choice given the powerful impact and contribution of two particular groups in our manifesto preparation.
First, Scotland's unpaid carers. The message that came from them was a very simple one. It is an aspiration, and indeed expectation, that I hope ministers do all they can to meet. Scotland's unpaid carers want to be true partners in the care of their loved ones and to be seen as partners and treated as partners. At its simplest this means turning the good words and good ideas in all the parties' manifestos into action on the ground. It means recognising the invaluable role unpaid carers play and their unique knowledge. The responsibility politicians now have - and that means politicians in all parties in parliament and indeed in council chambers - is to iron out the bureaucratic complexities that can too often get in the way.
There are three steps in particular I want to highlight. First is the early activation of the SNP's proposed Carers' Parliament so that the politicians and civil servants can hear first hand the experiences of carers. That will give them the essential knowledge they need to begin a process of reform and improvement.
Second, is a new approach in the NHS that turns the good guidance that undoubtedly exists into positive experience for carers, so that they are brought more closely into the conversations and planning of the professional care offered by the health service. I remember hearing story after story from carers who felt excluded when the information they could provide would improve the care for their loved ones and also make life easier for the doctors and nurses themselves.
And finally, we have to respond adequately to the particular needs of young carers, especially in a school setting. I can only imagine the pressure on young carers who have to juggle their caring responsibilities and their school work and the system must respond more sympathetically and effectively to their uniquely difficult circumstances. Our proposal to make the Education Maintenance Allowance more flexible is an important starting point.
The second group to deliver a powerful message of change was the Poverty Truth Commission. As the Commission itself says, for Scotland's most disadvantaged communities "nothing about us, without us, is for us". I hope these words are emblazoned in the minds of the new SNP ministerial team. Community empowerment was an important theme in the SNP manifesto and at its core this means that communities themselves must, as much as possible, have the opportunity to determine the right approach for their own circumstances. It has to mean a move away from the worst top-down policy making and decision making of the past.
I'll highlight two initiatives that I believe can make a difference. First is our proposed Warm Homes Fund which has at its heart the determination not only to insulate homes and provide sources of renewable energy for fuel poor communities, but more than this, it has the clear purpose of ensuring those renewable energy sources are community-owned and deliver a long-term financial return - an income stream which the communities themselves control and can use to improve their local area. And in my view, that source of renewable energy need not be in the community itself. I see no good reason why the fund shouldn't be used to allow the most fuel-poor communities to own a wind turbine or a share of a turbine in one of the wind-farms being constructed elsewhere. It would be good to see our energy companies as willing partners in this sort of meaningful corporate social responsibility.
Second is our Community Empowerment Bill which will make it easier for local organisations to take over unused and underused public sector assets and put them to good use. The Scottish Council for Voluntary Organisations (SCVO) made very clear in the run up to the campaign just how important this step could be. If we can create or reclaim spaces for vibrant, locally-led organisations then I have no doubt that we will create stronger and more successful communities and as importantly a range of initiatives that respond more effectively to local needs. Scotland has a complex mosaic of need and that requires an equally intricate mosaic of response. To borrow another phrase from the First Minister, Holyrood does not have a monopoly of wisdom and I hope that Scotland's politicians can find ways of releasing local potential and supporting the flowering of community activity in its many forms.
In the days since the SNP election victory some commentators have asked what Scotland voted for. I think the answer is simple - for a government of all our ambitions. A Scottish Government not only working hard for the people of our nation today, but as importantly with an eye to the better land we need to create and can create.
What does that mean? Hopefully the elements I've outlined above give some illustration. Ministers, building on a clear direction of travel over these past four years to deliver an approach that is about transforming, in simple but important ways, the day to day life experience of people in all parts of our nation.
What else? How about real action on anti-social behaviour, with a clamp down on pocket-money priced alcohol to make communities safer. Incomes protected with water bills and Council tax frozen. Job creation prioritised so we can keep people in work and create new opportunities for employment. These things, and more, designed to answer basics hopes, delivering ambition that is also grounded in our day to day reality: security and peace of mind whether you are walking down your street or balancing your family budget.
As a final thought, one last campaign image, courtesy of Ewan McIntosh. This is a 'wordle' of our manifesto and it paints, in the most vivid way, what I believe is a true picture of the SNP election campaign. A campaign that, at its most basic, did have Scotland, and our many ambitions, at its heart:
Tuesday, 10 May 2011
Stronger together as equals
In the immediate aftermath of the election a lot has been said and written about the SNP's constitutional plans. It seems already that opposition politicians have not learnt many (or any) lessons from last Thursday's results.
While the SNP has got on with the job - as we said we would - of trying to add job-creating powers to the Scotland Bill, the same parties who said the SNP would be obsessed with a referendum have spent the past week obsessing about a referendum. Do those other parties not realise how strange this looks?
And, once parliament begins its work, the SNP will be getting on with the job of delivering on our various manifesto commitments. I am looking forward in particular to the new government taking forward our Scottish Futures Fund. This fund, with its five elements, has the potential to transform key areas of Scottish society with significant investment in creating opportunities for young Scots and tackling fuel poverty, among others.
But, back to the constitution. It has also been interesting to see the wider 'Unionist' response. Already there are indications that groups are being formed to make the 'no' case in the referendum. One, it seems, is to be called 'Stronger Together'. This emerging group (if it does ever emerge) is indicative of the problem facing the anti-independence cause - they will be arguing against independence in a way that ignores the reality of what independence would be. They will be attacking so-called separatism when separatism is not on the agenda.
As far back as 2007 Alex Salmond said the following:
"Independence will bring many opportunities for our nation, and with those opportunities also greater success and prosperity. And with independence I look forward to a new partnership with our neighbours in England - one where we will be equal partners, not surly lodgers.
In that new relationship the Queen would remain the Head of State in Scotland. The current parliamentary and political Union would become a monarchical and social union - United Kingdoms rather than a United Kingdom - maintaining a relationship first forged in 1603 by the Union of the Crowns.
Independence for Scotland in the 21st century would reflect the reality of existing interdependence: partnership in these Islands and more widely across Europe."
So what does this mean? Ultimately, that we will be stronger together, but as equals. Instead of an old Union based on the power politics of the 18th century, we will have a new, more modern partnership fit for this 21st century.
Independence will mean a relationship on these Isles that is brought up to date. It is a myth to suggest that the current arrangements are about a fair and equal partnership. Today, Scotland is subsidiary - in constitutional terms Westminster still calls the shots. In the areas of policy that are supposedly shared - for example the welfare state - Scottish opinion has next to no weight in the decisions taken at Westminster. The scandalous and systematic defence underspend in Scotland provides another vivid illustration. It is 'one size fits all' under current arrangements, even if the UK way is a bad fit for Scotland.
Sometimes it is useful to visualise these things. For me the Union today is illustrated as follows:
We are still connected, but in a different and more appropriate way.
There are two points to this. First, the independence illustration also reflects how many people in Scotland view themselves. Scottish first, British second and European third. In the important politics of identity, it is the independence offering that chimes with people's view of themselves.
And second, the Unionist defenders of the status quo will be attacking something that doesn't exist. Separatism may be a handy attack-phrase, but it is not what the SNP is proposing as even a quick examination of the various National Conversation papers and the independence white and green papers would demonstrate.
If Stronger Together is to be the rallying call for Unionism, it is a rallying call that will fail, because the SNP offering - stronger together as equals - has more resonance. With independence we'll be equal partners in Europe and equal partners on these Isles, on those many issues where we choose to work together.
As the SNP manifesto for the election says, at its most basic independence is the ability to take our own decisions. Does anyone doubt that an independent Scotland would choose to continue important partnerships with our nearest neighbour? For the 'no' side to pretend otherwise is their first strategic mistake. Once again they will be taking the Scottish electorate - the most sophisticated in Europe - for fools. And that is, quite simply, bad politics.
While the SNP has got on with the job - as we said we would - of trying to add job-creating powers to the Scotland Bill, the same parties who said the SNP would be obsessed with a referendum have spent the past week obsessing about a referendum. Do those other parties not realise how strange this looks?
And, once parliament begins its work, the SNP will be getting on with the job of delivering on our various manifesto commitments. I am looking forward in particular to the new government taking forward our Scottish Futures Fund. This fund, with its five elements, has the potential to transform key areas of Scottish society with significant investment in creating opportunities for young Scots and tackling fuel poverty, among others.
But, back to the constitution. It has also been interesting to see the wider 'Unionist' response. Already there are indications that groups are being formed to make the 'no' case in the referendum. One, it seems, is to be called 'Stronger Together'. This emerging group (if it does ever emerge) is indicative of the problem facing the anti-independence cause - they will be arguing against independence in a way that ignores the reality of what independence would be. They will be attacking so-called separatism when separatism is not on the agenda.
As far back as 2007 Alex Salmond said the following:
"Independence will bring many opportunities for our nation, and with those opportunities also greater success and prosperity. And with independence I look forward to a new partnership with our neighbours in England - one where we will be equal partners, not surly lodgers.
In that new relationship the Queen would remain the Head of State in Scotland. The current parliamentary and political Union would become a monarchical and social union - United Kingdoms rather than a United Kingdom - maintaining a relationship first forged in 1603 by the Union of the Crowns.
Independence for Scotland in the 21st century would reflect the reality of existing interdependence: partnership in these Islands and more widely across Europe."
So what does this mean? Ultimately, that we will be stronger together, but as equals. Instead of an old Union based on the power politics of the 18th century, we will have a new, more modern partnership fit for this 21st century.
Independence will mean a relationship on these Isles that is brought up to date. It is a myth to suggest that the current arrangements are about a fair and equal partnership. Today, Scotland is subsidiary - in constitutional terms Westminster still calls the shots. In the areas of policy that are supposedly shared - for example the welfare state - Scottish opinion has next to no weight in the decisions taken at Westminster. The scandalous and systematic defence underspend in Scotland provides another vivid illustration. It is 'one size fits all' under current arrangements, even if the UK way is a bad fit for Scotland.
Sometimes it is useful to visualise these things. For me the Union today is illustrated as follows:
Whereas independence becomes:
There are two points to this. First, the independence illustration also reflects how many people in Scotland view themselves. Scottish first, British second and European third. In the important politics of identity, it is the independence offering that chimes with people's view of themselves.
And second, the Unionist defenders of the status quo will be attacking something that doesn't exist. Separatism may be a handy attack-phrase, but it is not what the SNP is proposing as even a quick examination of the various National Conversation papers and the independence white and green papers would demonstrate.
If Stronger Together is to be the rallying call for Unionism, it is a rallying call that will fail, because the SNP offering - stronger together as equals - has more resonance. With independence we'll be equal partners in Europe and equal partners on these Isles, on those many issues where we choose to work together.
As the SNP manifesto for the election says, at its most basic independence is the ability to take our own decisions. Does anyone doubt that an independent Scotland would choose to continue important partnerships with our nearest neighbour? For the 'no' side to pretend otherwise is their first strategic mistake. Once again they will be taking the Scottish electorate - the most sophisticated in Europe - for fools. And that is, quite simply, bad politics.
Saturday, 7 May 2011
Hope did beat fear
We won.
That is the shortest and sweetest sentence I can imagine writing. Even now the thought sends a shiver of delight through my tired body.
And even though I am physically exhausted, even just seeing this picture brings a new wave of elation:
A victory on this scale brings enormous responsibility and having just heard Alex Salmond speaking to the new SNP Parliamentary Group - and hearing their response - I know that sense of responsibility and duty is uppermost in people's minds. We have earned an unprecedented level of trust and support and we must respond in the same way: with unprecedented commitment, passion and hard-work.
I felt enormously proud speaking to some of our new MSPs. Despite the undoubted joy of the occasion and the initial shared words of celebration and congratulation, conversation quickly moved on to the important things: their constituents and what they want to achieve in these next five years.
The result is humbling, and seeing the response of our new team is humbling too. I took this picture earlier today of the new group being greeted by Alex Salmond. It captures a rather special moment for all of us and is without doubt my picture of the week and indeed my picture of the campaign.
That is the shortest and sweetest sentence I can imagine writing. Even now the thought sends a shiver of delight through my tired body.
And even though I am physically exhausted, even just seeing this picture brings a new wave of elation:
A victory on this scale brings enormous responsibility and having just heard Alex Salmond speaking to the new SNP Parliamentary Group - and hearing their response - I know that sense of responsibility and duty is uppermost in people's minds. We have earned an unprecedented level of trust and support and we must respond in the same way: with unprecedented commitment, passion and hard-work.
I felt enormously proud speaking to some of our new MSPs. Despite the undoubted joy of the occasion and the initial shared words of celebration and congratulation, conversation quickly moved on to the important things: their constituents and what they want to achieve in these next five years.
The result is humbling, and seeing the response of our new team is humbling too. I took this picture earlier today of the new group being greeted by Alex Salmond. It captures a rather special moment for all of us and is without doubt my picture of the week and indeed my picture of the campaign.
24 hours ago I was standing in Prestonfield House waiting for the First Minister to deliver his excellent speech. Here's a picture I took as the media were gathering, about an hour before Alex Salmond's arrival.
The images from that afternoon will remain with me for the rest of my days.
So why did the SNP win? I blogged on polling day on the reasons people were giving us their vote. And at its most basic I do believe our campaign, which sought to inspire, did inspire. We set out a vision of hope, confidence in our nation and optimism for the future - a vision delivered by a dedicated, competent and effective team. And in contrast the other parties spent so much time trying to attack or to frighten they spent too little on their own vision thing. As is always the case, each party had uniquely good proposals, but I don't recall any of them being pushed seriously. More effort was put into telling people why we were (supposedly) so bad than into saying why they were better. Labour's offers were all about first the Tories, then the SNP and then about a future independence decision. They gave no strong reason why people would vote for them.
I've written a lot about positive campaigning over these past few months. Hope has beaten fear. Optimism has defeated pessimism. And that thought, in itself, brings a fresh smile to my face.
This election has been historic in many ways. It has broken the mould of Scottish politics as we knew it. And my personal wish is that the next time Scotland's parties go to the voters asking for the privilege to represent them in parliament or as Scotland's government, they all do so on the basis of what they will do, how they will inspire and how they will take Scotland forward. That might make things more difficult for the SNP, but it will make things better for Scotland.
Friday, 6 May 2011
A good morning
It has been a pretty amazing night so far for the SNP, and there are some more good results to come.
it is very humbling to have earned the trust and support of so many people across Scotland.
There were some fantastic results including the election of a great friend Jim Eadie in Edinburgh Southern. I met Jim yesterday morning at my local polling station and it is great, less than 24 hours later, to see him elected as an MSP. He will be an effective parliamentarian and representative for the people of Edinburgh.
Our newly elected MSPs represent Scotland in its diversity. We have Scotland's first blind MSP, a new Scots Asian MSP and some strong new women MSPs, with more to come.
And what is encouraging is that the regional votes in so far are of the same sort of level as the constituency vote. We've had big swings in Glasgow and Central Regions, which suggests that our 'both votes' strategy is paying dividends.
Still some way to go, with the last results not due until later this afternoon. But what we do know is that this will be the best ever result for the SNP. So thank you.
it is very humbling to have earned the trust and support of so many people across Scotland.
There were some fantastic results including the election of a great friend Jim Eadie in Edinburgh Southern. I met Jim yesterday morning at my local polling station and it is great, less than 24 hours later, to see him elected as an MSP. He will be an effective parliamentarian and representative for the people of Edinburgh.
Our newly elected MSPs represent Scotland in its diversity. We have Scotland's first blind MSP, a new Scots Asian MSP and some strong new women MSPs, with more to come.
And what is encouraging is that the regional votes in so far are of the same sort of level as the constituency vote. We've had big swings in Glasgow and Central Regions, which suggests that our 'both votes' strategy is paying dividends.
Still some way to go, with the last results not due until later this afternoon. But what we do know is that this will be the best ever result for the SNP. So thank you.
Scottish voters sending a clear message
Given the way Scotland is voting tonight, the Scotland Bill clearly needs to be significantly strengthened in terms of job-creating powers. A clear message is being sent. We know most voters want a stronger Scottish Parliament and that is one of the reasons they are backing the SNP.
I hope the UK government is watching closely - we need to see early progress on borrowing powers, the Crown Estate Commission and corporation tax.
Hope beating fear?
That's the first result in, but with indications also flooding in from counts across Scotland, it seems as though Labour may be paying the price for their unrelenting and uninspiring negativity.
The people of Scotland may be about to tell Labour that they have had enough of scare-mongering campaigns.
UPDATE
The swings in East Kilbride (6.6%) and Rutherglen (7.7%) are starting to tell a story. Watch out for Hamilton next.
UPDATE
The swing of 11% in Hamilton shows the SNP gaining votes from Labour, Lib Dem and Tory. The Labour line about a re-alignment of the centre-right is mistaken. The reality must be dawning on Labour, surely, that they are paying the price for their fear-filled campaign.
UPDATE
The SNP seemingly winning Glasgow Shettleston is perhaps the most amazing result of the night so far - once it is confirmed. The anticipated swing is over 11%. And for the SNP to come within a whisker of winning Greenock also speaks volumes. The Labour majority has fallen to 500.
The people of Scotland may be about to tell Labour that they have had enough of scare-mongering campaigns.
UPDATE
The swings in East Kilbride (6.6%) and Rutherglen (7.7%) are starting to tell a story. Watch out for Hamilton next.
UPDATE
The swing of 11% in Hamilton shows the SNP gaining votes from Labour, Lib Dem and Tory. The Labour line about a re-alignment of the centre-right is mistaken. The reality must be dawning on Labour, surely, that they are paying the price for their fear-filled campaign.
UPDATE
The SNP seemingly winning Glasgow Shettleston is perhaps the most amazing result of the night so far - once it is confirmed. The anticipated swing is over 11%. And for the SNP to come within a whisker of winning Greenock also speaks volumes. The Labour majority has fallen to 500.
Rutherglen
The swing in Rutherglen will be interesting - big Labour lead last time will reduce significantly I am hearing.
UPDATE
The swing to the SNP was 7.43% - Rutherglen was Labour's 4th safest seat. Could be an interesting night ahead of us.
UPDATE
The swing to the SNP was 7.43% - Rutherglen was Labour's 4th safest seat. Could be an interesting night ahead of us.
Starting to hear from the counts
We are getting some interesting and positive indications from counts across the country. Definitely worth staying up for the first results.
Thursday, 5 May 2011
Political betting
Interesting post on Political Betting:
"Labour have given up on Clydesdale, a bell weather seat in central Scotland. My sources say that the SNP vote is up a full 10 per cent with LABOUR DOWN on 2007 even although no Liberal standing."
"Labour have given up on Clydesdale, a bell weather seat in central Scotland. My sources say that the SNP vote is up a full 10 per cent with LABOUR DOWN on 2007 even although no Liberal standing."
The starting point
Not long until polls close and the campaign team is beginning to gather at HQ or at the various counts and television studios.
The starting point for tonight is of course a 1 seat SNP advantage and the starting point for this campaign was a 10% plus Labour lead.
We must remember that the best ever result for the SNP was 33%. So, if we win tonight, anything more than 1 seat or anything over 33% is a success.
We also know that Labour poured thousands of activists into key seats today - 10,000 it seems.
We remain hopeful of victory, but the votes have still to be counted. The people still have to be heard. And the result? We'll know soon enough.
The starting point for tonight is of course a 1 seat SNP advantage and the starting point for this campaign was a 10% plus Labour lead.
We must remember that the best ever result for the SNP was 33%. So, if we win tonight, anything more than 1 seat or anything over 33% is a success.
We also know that Labour poured thousands of activists into key seats today - 10,000 it seems.
We remain hopeful of victory, but the votes have still to be counted. The people still have to be heard. And the result? We'll know soon enough.
10 reasons why people are voting SNP
We've spent a lot of time in this election campaign speaking directly to voters and as part of our research efforts have gained a pretty good understanding of why people are voting SNP in this election, including those voting SNP for the first time. These are just some of the reasons people are voting SNP today:
1. Alex Salmond will make the best First Minister for Scotland.
2. The SNP government has done a good job over these past four years and that's a good reason for thinking we're most likely to do the same over the next five years.
3. We don't answer to anyone but the Scottish people - no split loyalties. And, as part of this they see us as representing Scotland as a whole rather than one section of it.
4. We believe in independence for Scotland. And, for those who don't share this belief, they like the fact we believe in something.
5. They think the Council Tax freeze shows that we actually understand the financial pressures and uncertainty they are facing.
6. They like the fact Alex Salmond has an ambitious vision for Scotland which is encapsulated in his determination to make the most of our green energy windfall - some see the jobs and wealth potential because of the experience with North Sea oil. There's a sense that this time Scotland should get its full and fair share.
7. They think we are best placed and most likely to stand up for Scotland.
8. They think our team is the most representative of Scotland, not just at senior level, but at all levels there are SNP people they identify with. This is most often reflected in a good experience with a local councillor or MSP/candidate.
9. They don't like one of the other parties and think the SNP is best placed to beat that party in their seat.
10. They like the fact we talk Scotland up and have a bit of confidence about our nation's abilities and its future.
There are others, specific to policy proposals or based on personal connections. But these are certainly the top 10 that we've picked up over the closing part of this campaign.
Whatever your reason, I hope that today you will trust the SNP again and, crucially, give us both your votes to re-elect the SNP and Alex Salmond as First Minister.
And here's a video from Alex Salmond, recorded yesterday, explaining why he thinks you should use both votes for the SNP today:
1. Alex Salmond will make the best First Minister for Scotland.
2. The SNP government has done a good job over these past four years and that's a good reason for thinking we're most likely to do the same over the next five years.
3. We don't answer to anyone but the Scottish people - no split loyalties. And, as part of this they see us as representing Scotland as a whole rather than one section of it.
4. We believe in independence for Scotland. And, for those who don't share this belief, they like the fact we believe in something.
5. They think the Council Tax freeze shows that we actually understand the financial pressures and uncertainty they are facing.
6. They like the fact Alex Salmond has an ambitious vision for Scotland which is encapsulated in his determination to make the most of our green energy windfall - some see the jobs and wealth potential because of the experience with North Sea oil. There's a sense that this time Scotland should get its full and fair share.
7. They think we are best placed and most likely to stand up for Scotland.
8. They think our team is the most representative of Scotland, not just at senior level, but at all levels there are SNP people they identify with. This is most often reflected in a good experience with a local councillor or MSP/candidate.
9. They don't like one of the other parties and think the SNP is best placed to beat that party in their seat.
10. They like the fact we talk Scotland up and have a bit of confidence about our nation's abilities and its future.
There are others, specific to policy proposals or based on personal connections. But these are certainly the top 10 that we've picked up over the closing part of this campaign.
Whatever your reason, I hope that today you will trust the SNP again and, crucially, give us both your votes to re-elect the SNP and Alex Salmond as First Minister.
And here's a video from Alex Salmond, recorded yesterday, explaining why he thinks you should use both votes for the SNP today:
Wednesday, 4 May 2011
Final thoughts
Scotland's election takes place tomorrow (in case you hadn't noticed). And it's been a long campaign to say the least. The mood in SNP HQ has remained good throughout - never too high and never too low. There's been a steady and consistent focus on the job that needs doing.
The SNP has many strengths and, as a friend and former colleague reminded me last night, one that is rarely spoken about is the nature of the leadership and campaign teams. We are people who have worked together for a good number of years - in some cases well over 20 years. It is a team, with some important additions, that in many ways remains largely unchanged from the hardy group that fought the 1999 election (and for some that could go back to the 1992 and 1997 elections as well).
What does this mean in reality? First there is a lot of collective and shared knowledge and experience - we've learnt some hard lessons and indeed many new skills. And whatever the result tomorrow we are still learning. Second, as a team we have a good sense of how each of us is going to react and we know almost instinctively who is best placed to take forward a particular task. Second-guessing is at a minimum.
And finally, a great deal of trust and respect has been built up. It would be going too far to say that we are all friends, but certainly bonds of friendship connect every single member of the team. We talk to each other a lot and we socialise with each other. That creates a very coherent, and I believe effective, group of people.
If I look around my colleagues in SNP HQ I see people who will go the extra mile, who will step in to help when help is needed. No one is too grand or too important to do even the most menial task. If something needs done it gets done.
People sometimes ask me what it is like being involved in an election campaign, and the truth is every one is unique. They are long and both physically and mentally exhausting. Late nights are followed by early mornings and there is little room for anything outside the campaign. But that is not unique to the SNP campaign.
But there is something that is unique about our campaign. I walk to work every morning knowing that my job that day is to make people feel better about Scotland; to inspire them about what we can achieve. I don't spend a minute of my day thinking about how I can frighten people or how I can knock voters' confidence. That is hugely rewarding personally and it is also a powerful antidote to tiredness. I don't envy my counterparts in the Labour Party who it seems are focused more on what Scotland can't do. For the SNP the possibilities for Scotland are endless - for Labour Scotland's potential must be constrained.
One of my jobs in the final weeks of the campaign has been to draft some of the national leaflets and floating voter letters that have gone through people's doors in recent days. Not a single word has been written in those leaflets or letters saying why people shouldn't vote Labour - it has all been about why people should vote SNP.
Here's an example of the contrast. This is the final weekend leaflet we put out:
And this is one of Labour's:
And finally, I began all those weeks ago with a blog about 'caveman campaigning' - whether or not it would be possible to keep up the paleo diet in the midst of an election campaign. The second untold story of the SNP HQ effort is that it has been fuelled by a seemingly constant stream of cake and chocolate. In the face of this remarkable level of temptation, I'm pleased to report back that I did manage. Variety may have suffered (i.e. I've been eating pretty much the same quick and easily prepared food for weeks now) but with the help of a tub of 'emergency' nuts and seeds, I've been able to keep my diet 99.9% paleolithic (the two slip ups were on my birthday)! I've also managed 3-times a week at the gym, something that has certainly helped keep the stress levels down.
I'll be keeping this blog updated through the night tomorrow as the polls close and the first results come in.
And don't forget, both votes SNP! This election is still too close to call, every vote is needed. If you want Alex Salmond for First Minister, you've got to vote for it.
The SNP has many strengths and, as a friend and former colleague reminded me last night, one that is rarely spoken about is the nature of the leadership and campaign teams. We are people who have worked together for a good number of years - in some cases well over 20 years. It is a team, with some important additions, that in many ways remains largely unchanged from the hardy group that fought the 1999 election (and for some that could go back to the 1992 and 1997 elections as well).
What does this mean in reality? First there is a lot of collective and shared knowledge and experience - we've learnt some hard lessons and indeed many new skills. And whatever the result tomorrow we are still learning. Second, as a team we have a good sense of how each of us is going to react and we know almost instinctively who is best placed to take forward a particular task. Second-guessing is at a minimum.
And finally, a great deal of trust and respect has been built up. It would be going too far to say that we are all friends, but certainly bonds of friendship connect every single member of the team. We talk to each other a lot and we socialise with each other. That creates a very coherent, and I believe effective, group of people.
If I look around my colleagues in SNP HQ I see people who will go the extra mile, who will step in to help when help is needed. No one is too grand or too important to do even the most menial task. If something needs done it gets done.
People sometimes ask me what it is like being involved in an election campaign, and the truth is every one is unique. They are long and both physically and mentally exhausting. Late nights are followed by early mornings and there is little room for anything outside the campaign. But that is not unique to the SNP campaign.
But there is something that is unique about our campaign. I walk to work every morning knowing that my job that day is to make people feel better about Scotland; to inspire them about what we can achieve. I don't spend a minute of my day thinking about how I can frighten people or how I can knock voters' confidence. That is hugely rewarding personally and it is also a powerful antidote to tiredness. I don't envy my counterparts in the Labour Party who it seems are focused more on what Scotland can't do. For the SNP the possibilities for Scotland are endless - for Labour Scotland's potential must be constrained.
One of my jobs in the final weeks of the campaign has been to draft some of the national leaflets and floating voter letters that have gone through people's doors in recent days. Not a single word has been written in those leaflets or letters saying why people shouldn't vote Labour - it has all been about why people should vote SNP.
Here's an example of the contrast. This is the final weekend leaflet we put out:
And this is one of Labour's:
Of course, we'll find out on Friday which is the more effective. My number one criticism of the Labour approach is that it simply doesn't inspire. It doesn't even seek to inspire.
There's a fascinating video on the Guardian website that looks at people's motivations for voting in this election. Unfortunately I can't stream it directly on the blog, but if you follow this link it is well worth the 9 minutes of viewing. What struck me most was the number of people who said they were voting SNP because we offered an optimistic vision for Scotland. They seem to like the fact that we are saying to them the path ahead is a bright one.
Two final thoughts, one political and one more personal.
Again a contrast. Today's papers contain details of 200 business-people who are publicly saying they want Alex Salmond re-elected as First Minister. From some of the most successful businesses in Scotland to local corner shops. These people who create wealth and jobs in our country want Alex Salmond to take the reins of government once again. Here it is in advert form in the Scotsman:
And while we were putting out this positive statement the Tories (supported in the most shocking way by Labour) were issuing a press-release with a claim that income tax would need to increase to an eye-watering level in an independent Scotland. The people who issued the release aren't stupid and they know the basis of their claim is ridiculous and untrue. If the same calculation was made for the UK, income tax would have to rise to even more eye-watering levels, to over 60p. So why did they make it? Simply because they want to frighten people. I can only repeat: thank goodness that is not the job I have to do.
I'll be keeping this blog updated through the night tomorrow as the polls close and the first results come in.
And don't forget, both votes SNP! This election is still too close to call, every vote is needed. If you want Alex Salmond for First Minister, you've got to vote for it.
Monday, 2 May 2011
Horror, humour and the vision thing
We've had some interesting feedback from the doors over the past 48 hours, including today the first reaction to the BBC Leaders' debate.
Last night, as the debate was being recorded, I tweeted that I thought Alex Salmond was the only one to use the word ambition in the whole show. I thought the fact he set out a compelling vision based on ambition for Scotland was one of his key strengths on the night - and also one of the factors that set him apart from the other participants.
In a debate most viewers only take away one memorable line or one impression and it seems, for last night, that the stand out memory for many was Alex's 'vision thing' on renewables. I find that hugely encouraging, but I suppose not surprising. When people are deciding who they want to lead the country for the next five years they are naturally going to focus on where the candidate wants to lead them. Alex offered a compelling vision of a re-industrialised Scotland, and that is powerful in its own right. But it was made all the more powerful because he was the only leader to offer a vision of any kind.
The other interesting feedback from the frontline relates to the Labour Party's recent assault on independence. Certainly independence is being spoken about more on the doorsteps, but the big difference in this election is that the Labour attack is being weighed against people's actual experience of us.
There was a poll today in the Scotsman which found that 57% of Scots believe that the SNP has done a good job of running Scotland, well over three-times the 17% who take the opposite view. Against this belief, the Labour claim of a 'distracted' SNP just doesn't add up. Voters know we haven't been distracted over the past four years. They also know we've delivered a Council Tax freeze, 1,000 extra police, the small business bonus and many more positive things. People know us by our actions, not by Labour's words.
The chat on the doorsteps today confirmed this position. Voters aren't daft. They have been able to separate out in their minds an election on Thursday that is about who will form the next government in Scotland. They know it is not a Westminster election or an independence referendum campaign.
They've seen how the SNP government has behaved over these past four year and from that they can work out how we are going to behave over the next five years.
Labour could have played the independence card more subtly, but they choose to do it with the usual hysteria and exaggeration. Tonight, in their last election broadcast, they made their final pitch. And the Hammer House of Horror voiceover said it all. They missed the mark because they re-ran a 2007 attack without realising that the world, and Scottish voters, have moved on. And that is the number one reason their attack is failing on the doorsteps.
Tomorrow night is the SNP's final broadcast. And it is perfectly pitched to undermine Labour's last minute scaremongering assault. It says here is our record, this is who we are, and building on this record this is what we are going to do: Council Tax frozen again, the 1,000 extra police maintained, better and faster NHS treatment to name just a few.
As a variation on my oft repeated mantra, this time it is Pythonesque humour and hope that will beat Labour's 'Hammer Horror' and fear.
And again to close off this blog, two new favourite pics. The first was taken last night in the so-called 'spin room' at the BBC Leaders' debate. it shows the SNP team watching as the debate unfolded on the big screen in front of us, with Liz Lloyd and me engaged in some (not so) surreptitious pre-tweeting of the debate.
And the second wins my award for the most disturbing picture of the campaign (so far). Ten, otherwise sane, members of the campaign team sporting high-visibility Alex Salmond for First Minister jackets. The spring sunshine had clearly gone to their heads, but it does make a rather good picture . . .
And in case you are wondering what tomorrow's broadcast is going to be, you can see a previous version of it here:
Last night, as the debate was being recorded, I tweeted that I thought Alex Salmond was the only one to use the word ambition in the whole show. I thought the fact he set out a compelling vision based on ambition for Scotland was one of his key strengths on the night - and also one of the factors that set him apart from the other participants.
In a debate most viewers only take away one memorable line or one impression and it seems, for last night, that the stand out memory for many was Alex's 'vision thing' on renewables. I find that hugely encouraging, but I suppose not surprising. When people are deciding who they want to lead the country for the next five years they are naturally going to focus on where the candidate wants to lead them. Alex offered a compelling vision of a re-industrialised Scotland, and that is powerful in its own right. But it was made all the more powerful because he was the only leader to offer a vision of any kind.
The other interesting feedback from the frontline relates to the Labour Party's recent assault on independence. Certainly independence is being spoken about more on the doorsteps, but the big difference in this election is that the Labour attack is being weighed against people's actual experience of us.
There was a poll today in the Scotsman which found that 57% of Scots believe that the SNP has done a good job of running Scotland, well over three-times the 17% who take the opposite view. Against this belief, the Labour claim of a 'distracted' SNP just doesn't add up. Voters know we haven't been distracted over the past four years. They also know we've delivered a Council Tax freeze, 1,000 extra police, the small business bonus and many more positive things. People know us by our actions, not by Labour's words.
The chat on the doorsteps today confirmed this position. Voters aren't daft. They have been able to separate out in their minds an election on Thursday that is about who will form the next government in Scotland. They know it is not a Westminster election or an independence referendum campaign.
They've seen how the SNP government has behaved over these past four year and from that they can work out how we are going to behave over the next five years.
Labour could have played the independence card more subtly, but they choose to do it with the usual hysteria and exaggeration. Tonight, in their last election broadcast, they made their final pitch. And the Hammer House of Horror voiceover said it all. They missed the mark because they re-ran a 2007 attack without realising that the world, and Scottish voters, have moved on. And that is the number one reason their attack is failing on the doorsteps.
Tomorrow night is the SNP's final broadcast. And it is perfectly pitched to undermine Labour's last minute scaremongering assault. It says here is our record, this is who we are, and building on this record this is what we are going to do: Council Tax frozen again, the 1,000 extra police maintained, better and faster NHS treatment to name just a few.
As a variation on my oft repeated mantra, this time it is Pythonesque humour and hope that will beat Labour's 'Hammer Horror' and fear.
And again to close off this blog, two new favourite pics. The first was taken last night in the so-called 'spin room' at the BBC Leaders' debate. it shows the SNP team watching as the debate unfolded on the big screen in front of us, with Liz Lloyd and me engaged in some (not so) surreptitious pre-tweeting of the debate.
And the second wins my award for the most disturbing picture of the campaign (so far). Ten, otherwise sane, members of the campaign team sporting high-visibility Alex Salmond for First Minister jackets. The spring sunshine had clearly gone to their heads, but it does make a rather good picture . . .
And in case you are wondering what tomorrow's broadcast is going to be, you can see a previous version of it here:
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